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☆ Trump warns the market will crash if he loses. Investors just laugh
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump is once again warning the stock market is doomed unless voters return him to the White House. He went on to say a loss for him would spark “the largest stock market crash we’ve ever had.”But there is no evidence to support that claim. “This is just an encore presentation of what he said last time,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. In fact, the stock market has generated higher annual returns when Democrats are in power. It’s true that Trump’s surprise victory in November 2016 helped spark an impressive rally in the stock market as investors bet on deregulation, tax cuts and infrastructure.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, you’re, ” Trump, ”, Brian Gardner, “ There’s, ” David Kelly, “, Kelly, Joe Biden, Biden, Hogan, ” Sam Stovall, he’s, “ It’s, Dow, ” Kelly, Gardner, James Singer, CNN it’s “, ” Singer, Jerome Powell —, Powell, Jerome Powell, Greg Valliere, Trump’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, White, Trump, Asset Management, Dow, Riley, CFRA Research, GOP, “, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Biden, Republicans, Democrat, Research, —, Republican, AGF Investments Locations: New York, Washington, Trump, China

☆ Analysis: A messy government shutdown is the last thing the economy needs
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Against this precarious backdrop, Washington is on the verge of a messy shutdown of the federal government. A shutdown probably won’t wreck the economy, especially if it’s short. And if it a shutdown lasts long enough, it could, along with these other headwinds, do some real damage. The US Travel Association estimates the domestic travel economy would lose as much as $140 million a day from a government shutdown. “Uncertainty regarding federal operations will likely persist for the next few months.”Given all the other obstacles facing the economy, chaos in Washington is the last thing the economy needs.

Persons: New York CNN —, ”, Greg Valliere, Joe Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, —, Uncle Sam, Mark Zandi, don’t, ” Zandi, AGF’s, “, ” Moody’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, UAW, Big Three, Federal, Federal Reserve, AGF Investments, RSM, American Federation of Government Employees, TSA, US Travel Association, Companies, Moody’s, AAA, Goldman Locations: New York, Washington, United States

☆ Goldman Sachs: A government shutdown would be ‘manageable’ for the economy. That’s why it’s likely to happen
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Goldman Sachs is warning clients that Washington is on a collision course with its first government shutdown in five years. A shutdown later this year would wipe out 0.2 percentage points from growth per week, according to Goldman Sachs projections. Assuming just “modest” economic and market impact, a government shutdown should have “little effect” on central bank policy, according to Goldman Sachs. However, Goldman Sachs said a “prolonged” shutdown that starts in October could add to the arguments in favor of the Fed keeping policy on hold at the November meeting. The 2013 shutdown delayed the release of most federal economic reports, including ones on inflation, jobs and retail sales.

Persons: New York CNN — Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs, Greg Valliere, Kevin McCarthy, ” Valliere Organizations: New, New York CNN, Justice Department, Fitch, Washington, Social Security, AGF Investments, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Washington, Ukraine, —

☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street is strangely calm about the debt ceiling. That could change this month
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Dire warnings about the economic chaos and catastrophe that will ensue if the US debt ceiling isn’t lifted soon abound. The debt ceiling crisis of 2011 caused Standard and Poor’s to downgrade US debt for the first time in history. Schwenkler says to expect “a lot more volatility” if debt ceiling issues don’t appear resolved by the last week of the month. By contrast, recovery from a debt-default crisis would likely start the day Congress, belatedly, suspended the debt ceiling,” he added. “A misstep over the debt ceiling would subject businesses and consumers to an economic shockwave,” he added.

☆ Gallup poll: Americans have low confidence in Biden, Powell and Yellen on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Even with the unemployment rate tumbling to historic lows, nearly half (48%) of Americans say they have almost no confidence in Biden on the economy. Only 36% of Americans say they have confidence in Powell on the economy, a new low during Powell’s six-year tenure as Fed chief, while 28% say they have almost no confidence. The poll, taken April 3 to April 25, demonstrates how the anxiety caused by high inflation continues to overshadow the nation’s surprisingly strong job market. The economy added 253,000 jobs in April, dropping the unemployment rate to 3.4% — tied for the lowest since 1969. Gallup notes that confidence in leaders tends to rise and fall along with the fortunes of the economy.

☆ Analysis: How to characterize the American economy — from broken to just bizarre
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The US economy is going from broken to bizarre. Covid crashed the American economy three years ago with no playbook for the wild recovery that would follow. And yet, the US economy today is growing, the job market is strong, and the consumer is still spending. The economy has added an astonishing 1.2 million jobs this year and the jobless rate matches the lowest since 1969. Goldman Sachs pegs recession odds at 35% and Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week said the economy could still skirt a recession.

☆ ‘It’s not zero.’ Wall Street is pricing in a small but growing risk of a disastrous US default
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

As politicians sleepwalk toward a potential debt ceiling crisis, financial markets have begun pricing in a small — but growing — chance of a disastrous default. “The probability of default has gone up noticeably,” Andy Sparks, head of portfolio management research at MSCI, told CNN in an interview. Yellen has used unusually strong language for a former central banker to warn Congress against messing with the debt ceiling. Asked about MSCI’s estimate of a 2% implied probability of a default, Valliere said that number is low. But this is not a typical debt ceiling debate.”Fallback optionsThere are some early indicators of concern popping up in the bond market.

☆ Consumer confidence is near its lowest in a decade, and that could be a problem for Biden
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

US President Joe Biden speaks during a DNC rally in Miami Gardens, Florida, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022. The survey of 1,201 respondents saw Republicans with a 37%-21% edge on the question of which party is better for the economy. On overall sentiment, the Michigan survey saw a reading of 59.9 for October, 2.2% better than September but 16.5% below the same period a year ago. The University of Michigan survey also found respondents had more trust in Republicans when it came to the fate of their personal finances. The survey showed expectations running high that Republicans will prevail in Tuesday's election and wrest control of Congress back from Democrats.

☆ The powerful motivator behind workers who want more
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-16 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN Business —Rail workers, teachers, nurses, baristas. There is a powerful factor motivating these American workers to demand for more. “Railroad workers are leading the way but everyone wants more.”Those are the dollars and cents behind workers’ dissatisfaction. For workers, closing that gap between wages and consumer prices could, actually, be inflationary. The things that make us middle class — housing, health care, education — these things are going up at triple that rate.

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